With the objective of buy low, sell high, what current investments are out of favor and therefore could show significant gains over the long term? Everything seems to be up – stocks, real estate, gold, commodities. Is there an asset class or stock sector that is currently out of favor and priced at a discount?
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September 14th, 2010 at 2:20 pm
You’re right. There are lots of assets that are at/near peak pricing. That’s one of the reasons some economists/fund manager are calling this the time of "low returns".
Asset classes that are on lows and are out of favor:
American real estate
American subprime
US Healthcare
US Conglomerates
US Water utilities
Short-duration US Government bonds (higher interest rates)
Oil shipping companies
Japanese equities
September 14th, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Well, although I consider myself a technician, I still hold to the belief that markets are efficient over a long period of time. What are the implications of that? Well, it means I don’t like to predict, but going with the flow is another story. So then, what stocks/investments should be ready to do well? That all depends on what business cycle you feel that the economy is in.
If you feel that the economy is topping out, then you could expect basic industries to do well, followed by consumer staples, like food stocks. If you feel we are still in an expansion with more to come, then you might look towards capital goods. If you expect the yield curve to go back to normal, you might expect banks/financials to continue to do well. Real estate is past its peak (although I believe in it for the long term-supply is virtually inelastic-yes Ive seen the show about the manmade islands in SE Asia so not entirely). Commodities peaked last May but strengthening demand from developing markets will certainly provide some support over time.